The odds are on the record.
Calibrated odds probate in St. Louis and St. Charles County
Our leads need to be proven for us to sell them.
Plenty of reasons get offered for why a house will sell: a foreclosure, a late tax bill, a divorce. Most of them do not survive being measured.
A home picked at random in St. Charles County sells within six months 2.6% of the time. Mosaic grades the probate records it sells and prints the odds each grade measured, the weakest one included. See our research Odds for every record
Two reasons sold above the baseline sale rate.
Those pieces report each original measurement; the grades below are the current six-month version.
We don’t sell
Nothing below reaches the three times we require before we sell a signal, so we keep watching.
Foreclosure
A filing raised the six-month odds 2.61x in St. Charles County, short of the three times we require.
Delinquent taxes
Owners behind on the bill sold no faster than owners who were not (odds ratio 1.28, a range that includes no effect).
Divorce
Nearly half the deed changes that follow a filing are one spouse taking over, not a sale.
Judgments
A judgment against the owner left the odds at 0.71x in St. Charles County, and 94.9% are one state agency collecting unemployment debt.
Slide the days, read the grade
Sold within six months, per 100 filings
St. Charles St. Louis Baseline sale rate: St. Charles 2.6%, St. Louis 2.8%
Fast filing group
- St. Charles County
- about 19 in 100 (92 of 489 filings; range 15.6 to 22.5)
- St. Louis County
- about 12 in 100 (258 of 2,085 filings; range 11.0 to 13.9)
Lines are 95 percent ranges; where they overlap, the gap could be chance. Odds v1, figures through August 2, 2026, valid until March 29, 2027. Every record we sell, beside the baseline sale rate