The Knowledge Syndicate
Analytical notes on St. Louis Regional probate and estate activity.
The Concepts
St. Louis County Eviction Filings Rose in 2026
From January through September 2026, 9,431 eviction cases were filed in St. Louis County, up 11.5% from the same months of 2025. St. Charles County had 1,332, against 1,303 a year earlier. Court foreclosure cases also rose in St. Louis County, but on one trustee firm's Missouri calendar only 10 of 969 sales listed a court case. Debt lawsuits are above 2024 in both counties. Here are the counts, the method, and what they leave out.
How Mosaic Defines and Calculates Its Odds
Every odds figure on Mosaic is a count. It says which homes were counted, when the clock started, how long we watched, and what counted as a sale. This page lists each definition in use today and the corrections we are making to them.
How Often St. Charles Probate Leads Sell
A St. Charles County home with a probate filing sold within six months about 5.4 times as often as a home picked at random. Here is the count behind that number, and what it cannot tell you.
What $50 Buys on Mosaic
A Free account with $50 in credits buys 18 probate records with calibrated odds. The odds do not choose the 18, because a record for sale shows no grade. They show which of the 18 sells at 18.8 in 100 and which sells at 3.5 in 100, so you know where to start.
How the St. Louis County Tax Sale Works, and What Bidders Paid
St. Louis County sells delinquent-tax parcels in a sealed-bid sale. In all six sales from 2020 through 2025, the typical winner of a contested parcel paid at least 32% more than the next-highest bid, and none of that extra money earns redemption interest. The full report and a parcel guide are free.
Calibrated Odds Are Live on Mosaic
Calibrated odds went live on Mosaic on Wednesday night, October 7. Probate records can be bought with the odds their grade measured, with a new look, a price menu and a public data dictionary.
We're Changing to a "Proof First" Business Model
We now sell a type of lead only when homes behind it have sold at three or more times the baseline sale rate, and each type prints its rate, its window and its range. Probate clears the bar. St. Louis County pre-probate is sold as a provisional group rate, below the bar until its six-month outcomes are in. Three we measured do not clear it, and they come off the menu.
How Often St. Louis Probate Leads Actually Sell
14.4% of probate-matched houses in St. Louis County sold within 180 days. Across both counties we cover, the rate is 14.3%. Here is what that rate can carry, and what it cannot.
Pre-Probate Now Carries a Number in St. Louis County
A St. Louis County home still in a deceased owner's name, with no probate case on file, changed hands 6 times in 100 over twelve weeks. A home picked at random in St. Louis County sells 2.8 times in 100 over six months. The pre-probate figure is now published the way our probate odds are, as one versioned number with its count and its range. It is a rate for the whole lane, not a grade on each record, and here is why.
We Tested Six Reasons a House Sells. Five Were Noise.
Falling behind on property taxes does not predict that a house sells. Neither does what it is worth, how old it is, or how many names are on the deed. We measured six candidate signals, each against a comparison group. One of them moved the odds.
What a Probate Filing Actually Predicts
A St. Charles County home with a probate filing sold within six months 5.4 times as often as a home picked at random. The same houses sold below that baseline sale rate in the three years before the case was opened, which is what rules out coincidence.
Scored Before You Spend
Every probate lead list already matches ownership and skip-traces the names. None of them rank the deals. Five anonymized St. Louis pre-probate properties, scored on value, rent, yield, title, and freshness — so you know which to call first.
Big vs. Small Operators: The Line Isn't the State Line
We can generally tell a company's size by how much it pays for property — down to the ZIP code. The bigger the operator, the cheaper the house, and the lower the price per square foot. The estate-channel edge belongs to small operators.
The Wholesale Flip: the margins can be mapped (and we know the signal)
When a probate home sells low and resells within months at a markup, the gap is the wholesale spread. It is visible in the record, it concentrates in a short list of ZIP codes, and the best flips are bought before probate is even filed — which is where the signal lives.
How Much of St. Louis Probate Is Real Estate Inventory
About a third of St. Louis probate filings are homes the estate actually owned, not just an address where the decedent lived — and almost all of those are still sitting, months after filing. Pre-probate is still the head start.
Where St. Louis Estate Filings Cluster
Estate cases in St. Louis County are not spread evenly. They cluster in a few school districts. See which ones, with the data behind it.
The Out-of-State Heir Index
When an heir lives outside Missouri, they manage the house from a distance. In St. Louis estates with a confirmed heir address, nearly half do.
What CaseNet Tells You (And What It Doesn't)
Missouri's court website shows that a probate case was filed. It doesn't tell you who can act, how fast, or whether there's a house. Here's the gap.