Signals & Measurement
Calibrated Odds Are Live on Mosaic
Bottom line: calibrated odds are live on Mosaic. Since Wednesday night, October 7, you can buy probate records with calibrated odds: the rate at which probate cases in the same grade sold in the six months after filing.
Mosaic went offline for planned maintenance on Wednesday night while the change went in. We were in touch with current customers throughout the move, so none of them should have been surprised. The numbers on your screen changed when the odds arrived. That was the point of the change.
The Mosaic home page, October 9.
What the odds say
Probate cases are not alike, so we grade them by how long after the death the case was filed and print what each grade measured. In St. Charles County:
| Grade | Filed | Sold within six months | Records measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fast filing | within 3 months of the death | 18.8% (15.6 to 22.5) | 489 |
| Standard | 3 to 12 months after | 15.4% (12.4 to 18.9) | 468 |
| Flagged | over 12 months after | 6.1% (3.3 to 10.9) | 164 |
St. Louis County reads lower for the first two grades (12.4% and 8.7%) and about the same for the third (3.5%), so each record shows the rate measured in its own county.
Pre-probate records have no filing yet, so they have no grade. Each carries its county's provisional group rate instead. In St. Charles County, 4.0 in 100 homes matched from a pre-probate public record sold within 90 days of the death (8 of 201 homes, range 2.0 to 7.7). In St. Louis County, 6 in 100 homes still in a deceased owner's name changed hands within about twelve weeks (22 of 365 homes, range 4.0 to 9.0). The two measure different things, so we do not compare them. Both are provisional and will be measured again by April 2, 2027.
A sale is a recorded sale of $10,000 or more within 180 days of the filing, and cases still inside that window are left out. Ranges are 95 percent intervals.
These are rates for a group. They say what usually follows a filing in that grade, not whether one house will sell. This is version 1, with figures through August 2, 2026. We will recalculate it as our history grows, by March 29, 2027.
What changed
- Calibrated odds on the probate records you buy with them, with the reason for the grade beside each. Older records, filed 180 to 360 days ago, show their odds as examples, so you can see what a grade looks like before you buy.
- A new look, in color and type, across the site and the app.
- New ways to work the list. Browse by odds with a slider and a color key on the map and in the table. A table with the columns you choose, private notes, CSV export, and a cart for buying several records at once.
- A price menu you can read before signing in. A fixed monthly price by place, from $99 a month for part of St. Louis County to $479 for both counties, or single records from a balance with a $50 minimum. See the menu.
- A data dictionary. What every field on a delivered lead holds, when it is blank, and what it does not mean. Read it.
The table, odds first: records filed 180 to 360 days ago, October 9, on Mosaic's test site, which runs the live app's code.
What stays
Natural language search stays: type what you are looking for in a sentence and the map filters to match. So does filtering on the map itself, including the drawing tools for marking out an area by hand.
The marketplace, with the search box, the odds bar and the drawing tools: October 9, on the test site.