How Often St. Louis Probate Leads Actually Sell

Bottom line: 14.4% of probate-matched houses in St. Louis County sold within 180 days. Across both counties and 1,303 leads, 14.3% of probate-matched houses sell within six months.

You have bought probate lists before. They tell you a case was filed. They do not tell you how many of those houses ever sell. That is the number that decides whether the calls were worth the hours.

How often do St. Louis probate leads sell?

161 of 1,117 St. Louis County probate-matched parcels sold within 180 days. That is 14.4%.

Sales are counted through June 30, 2026.

What is the rate across both counties?

186 of 1,303 probate-matched parcels across St. Louis and St. Charles counties sold within 180 days. That is 14.3%.

St. Louis County supplies 1,117 of those 1,303 parcels, so the two figures sit close together. The combined count runs across two scrapers and two assessor systems. The method behind this kind of testing is in What a Probate Filing Actually Predicts and We Tested Six Reasons a House Sells. Five Were Noise..

Is 14.4% a lift?

No. It is a conversion rate, and nothing more.

A lift compares probate houses to similar houses with no case open. We have no usable control group in St. Louis County. The priced-sale records we can read there cover a small share of parcels, and they skew toward tax-sale targets.

So there is no St. Louis lift. We will not quote one.

What does the rate cover, and what does it miss?

• It describes a type of lead, not any one record. No rate can tell you that the house in front of you will sell.
• It covers St. Louis County and St. Charles County. Nothing here speaks to anywhere else.
• The window is 180 days, with sales observed through June 30, 2026.

For how much of this inventory is real estate in the first place, see How Much of St. Louis Probate Is Real Estate Inventory. For where the filings sit on the map, see Where St. Louis Estate Filings Cluster.

What this means

Most probate-matched houses do not sell in six months. In St. Louis County 14.4% did, and the rest stayed put, at least inside this window.

That is still a working rate. It is also a planning number. If you know what share of a list usually moves, you can decide how many hours the list is worth before you spend them, instead of after.

A list tells you something was filed. A rate tells you how often that filing turns into a sale. We publish ours so you can check the math against your own results.

Plans are on the menu.

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Measured against St. Louis County and St. Charles County records, within a 180-day window, and sales observed through June 30, 2026. Conversion rates only. No lift is claimed for St. Louis County.